🦠COVID-19🦠

We're all stuck at home and I'm typing on a laptop just provided by my work. My company is shut down for who knows how long and everyone has been ordered to work from home.

The entire Bay Area is on "pause."

In the mean time, people in Florida are having a grand old time. :banghead:


It drives me nuts when my family and I are all doing our best to help prevent the spread of this virus and you have people like that. This is an example of one step forward and two steps backward.

Until 100% all Americans take cornavirus seriously like the people in China, Taiwan, and South Korea did, we're in for a long and bumpy ride. :banghead:
 
https://www.wired.com/tag/coronavir...Stories_Coronavirus&itm_content=footer-recirc

Steven Levy
Science
03.19.2020 02:47 PM

The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming
Epidemiologist Larry Brilliant, who warned of pandemic in 2006, says we can beat the novel coronavirus—but first, we need lots more testing.

https://www.wired.com/story/coronav...lpox-epidemiologist/?utm_source=pocket-newtab


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Larry Brilliant says he doesn’t have a crystal ball. But 14 years ago, Brilliant, the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox, spoke to a TED audience and described what the next pandemic would look like. At the time, it sounded almost too horrible to take seriously. “A billion people would get sick," he said. “As many as 165 million people would die. There would be a global recession and depression, and the cost to our economy of $1 to $3 trillion would be far worse for everyone than merely 100 million people dying, because so many more people would lose their jobs and their health care benefits, that the consequences are almost unthinkable.”

Now the unthinkable is here, and Brilliant, the Chairman of the board of Ending Pandemics, is sharing expertise with those on the front lines. We are a long way from 100 million deaths due to the novel coronavirus, but it has turned our world upside down. Brilliant is trying not to say “I told you so” too often. But he did tell us so, not only in talks and writings, but as the senior technical advisor for the pandemic horror film Contagion, now a top streaming selection for the homebound. Besides working with the World Health Organization in the effort to end smallpox, Brilliant, who is now 75, has fought flu, polio, and blindness; once led Google’s nonprofit wing, Google.org; co-founded the conferencing system the Well; and has traveled with the Grateful Dead.

We talked by phone on Tuesday. At the time, President Donald Trump’s response to the crisis had started to change from “no worries at all” to finally taking more significant steps to stem the pandemic. Brilliant lives in one of the six Bay Area counties where residents were ordered to shelter in place. When we began the conversation, he’d just gotten off the phone with someone he described as high government official, who asked Brilliant “How the **** did we get here?” I wanted to hear how we’ll get out of here. The conversation has been edited and condensed.

Steven Levy: I was in the room in 2006 when you gave that TED talk. Your wish was “Help Me Stop Pandemics.” You didn't get your wish, did you?

Larry Brilliant: No, I didn't get that wish at all, although the systems that I asked for have certainly been created and are being used. It's very funny because we did a movie, Contagion—

We're all watching that movie now.

People say Contagion is prescient. We just saw the science. The whole epidemiological community has been warning everybody for the past 10 or 15 years that it wasn't a question of whether we were going to have a pandemic like this. It was simply when. It's really hard to get people to listen. I mean, Trump pushed out the admiral on the National Security Council, who was the only person at that level who's responsible for pandemic defense. With him went his entire downline of employees and staff and relationships. And then Trump removed the [early warning] funding for countries around the world.
I've heard you talk about the significance that this is a “novel” virus.

It doesn't mean a fictitious virus. It’s not like a novel or a novella.

Too bad.

It means it's new. That there is no human being in the world that has immunity as a result of having had it before. That means it’s capable of infecting 7.8 billion of our brothers and sisters.
Since it's novel, we’re still learning about it. Do you believe that if someone gets it and recovers, that person thereafter has immunity?

So I don't see anything in this virus, even though it's novel, [that contradicts that]. There are cases where people think that they've gotten it again, [but] that's more likely to be a test failure than it is an actual reinfection. But there's going to be tens of millions of us or hundreds of millions of us or more who will get this virus before it's all over, and with large numbers like that, almost anything where you ask “Does this happen?” can happen. That doesn't mean that it is of public health or epidemiological importance.

Is this the worst outbreak you’ve ever seen?

It's the most dangerous pandemic in our lifetime.

We are being asked to do things, certainly, that never happened in my lifetime—stay in the house, stay 6 feet away from other people, don’t go to group gatherings. Are we getting the right advice?

Well, as you reach me, I'm pretending that I'm in a meditation retreat, but I'm actually being semi-quarantined in Marin County. Yes, this is very good advice. But did we get good advice from the president of the United States for the first 12 weeks? No. All we got were lies. Saying it’s fake, by saying this is a Democratic hoax. There are still people today who believe that, to their detriment. Speaking as a public health person, this is the most irresponsible act of an elected official that I've ever witnessed in my lifetime. But what you're hearing now [to self-isolate, close schools, cancel events] is right. Is it going to protect us completely? Is it going to make the world safe forever? No. It's a great thing because we want to spread out the disease over time.

Flatten the curve.

By slowing it down or flattening it, we're not going to decrease the total number of cases, we're going to postpone many cases, until we get a vaccine—which we will, because there's nothing in the virology that makes me frightened that we won’t get a vaccine in 12 to 18 months. Eventually, we will get to the epidemiologist gold ring.

What’s that?

That means, A, a large enough quantity of us have caught the disease and become immune. And B, we have a vaccine. The combination of A plus B is enough to create herd immunity, which is around 70 or 80 percent.

I hold out hope that we get an antiviral for Covid-19 that is curative, but in addition is prophylactic. It's certainly unproven and it's certainly controversial, and certainly a lot of people are not going to agree with me. But I offer as evidence two papers in 2005, one in Nature and one in Science. They both did mathematical modeling with influenza, to see whether saturation with just Tamiflu of an area around a case of influenza could stop the outbreak. And in both cases, it worked. I also offer as evidence the fact that at one point we thought HIV/AIDS was incurable and a death sentence. Then, some wonderful scientists discovered antiviral drugs, and we've learned that some of those drugs can be given prior to exposure and prevent the disease. Because of the intense interest in getting [Covid-19] conquered, we will put the scientific clout and money and resources behind finding antivirals that have prophylactic or preventive characteristics that can be used in addition to [vaccines].

When will we be able to leave the house and go back to work?
I have a very good retrospect-oscope, but what's needed right now as a prospecto-scope. If this were a tennis match, I would say advantage virus right now. But there's really good news from South Korea—they had less than 100 cases today. China had more cases imported than it had from continuous transmission from Wuhan today. The Chinese model will be very hard for us to follow. We're not going to be locking people up in their apartments, boarding them up. But the South Korea model is one that we could follow. Unfortunately, it requires doing the proportionate number of tests that they did—they did well over a quarter of a million tests. In fact, by the time South Korea had done 200,000 tests, we had probably done less than 1,000.

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What Is the Coronavirus?


Now that we've missed the opportunity for early testing, is it too late for testing to make a difference?

Absolutely not. Tests would make a measurable difference. We should be doing a stochastic process random probability sample of the country to find out where the hell the virus really is. Because we don't know. Maybe Mississippi is reporting no cases because it's not looking. How would they know? Zimbabwe reports zero cases because they don't have testing capability, not because they don't have the virus. We need something that looks like a home pregnancy test, that you can do at home.

If you were the president for one day, what would you say in the daily briefing?

I would begin the press conference by saying "Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to Ron Klain—he was the Ebola czar [under President Barack Obama], and now I’ve called him back and made him Covid czar. Everything will be centralized under one person who has the respect of both the public health community and the political community." We're a divided country right now. Right now, Tony Fauci [head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] is the closest that we come to that.

Are you scared?

I'm in the age group that has a one in seven mortality rate if I get it. If you're not worried, you're not paying attention. But I'm not scared. I firmly believe that the steps that we're taking will extend the time that it takes for the virus to make the rounds. I think that, in turn, will increase the likelihood that we will have a vaccine or we will have a prophylactic antiviral in time to cut off, reduce, or truncate the spread. Everybody needs to remember: This is not a zombie apocalypse. It's not a mass extinction event.

Should we be wearing masks?

The N95 mask itself is extremely wonderful. The pores in the mask are three microns wide. The virus is one micron wide. So you get people who say, well, it's not going to work. But you try having three big, huge football players who are rushing for lunch through a door at lunchtime—they're not going to get through. In the latest data I saw, the mask provided 5x protection. That's really good. But we have to keep the hospitals going and we have to keep the health professionals able to come to work and be safe. So masks should go where they’re needed the most: in taking care of patients.

How will we know when we’re through this?

The world is not going to begin to look normal until three things have happened. One, we figure out whether the distribution of this virus looks like an iceberg, which is one-seventh above the water, or a pyramid, where we see everything. If we're only seeing right now one-seventh of the actual disease because we're not testing enough, and we're just blind to it, then we're in a world of hurt. Two, we have a treatment that works, a vaccine or antiviral. And three, maybe most important, we begin to see large numbers of people—in particular nurses, home health care providers, doctors, policemen, firemen, and teachers who have had the disease—are immune, and we have tested them to know that they are not infectious any longer. And we have a system that identifies them, either a concert wristband or a card with their photograph and some kind of a stamp on it. Then we can be comfortable sending our children back to school, because we know the teacher is not infectious.

And instead of saying "No, you can't visit anybody in nursing home," we have a group of people who are certified that they work with elderly and vulnerable people, and nurses who can go back into the hospitals and dentists who can open your mouth and look in your mouth and not be giving you the virus. When those three things happen, that's when normalcy will return.

Is there in any way a brighter side to this?

Well, I'm a scientist, but I'm also a person of faith. And I can't ever look at something without asking the question of isn't there a higher power that in some way will help us to be the best version of ourselves that we could be? I thought we would see the equivalent of empty streets in the civic arena, but the amount of civic engagement is greater than I've ever seen. But I'm seeing young kids, millennials, who are volunteering to go take groceries to people who are homebound, elderly. I'm seeing an incredible influx of nurses, heroic nurses, who are coming and working many more hours than they worked before, doctors who fearlessly go into the hospital to work. I've never seen the kind of volunteerism I'm seeing.

I don't want to pretend that this is an exercise worth going through in order to get to that state. This is a really unprecedented and difficult time that will test us. When we do get through it, maybe like the Second World War, it will cause us to reexamine what has caused the fractional division we have in this country. The virus is an equal opportunity infector. And it’s probably the way we would be better if we saw ourselves that way, which is much more alike than different.
 
Taiwan has only 77 coronavirus cases. Its response to the crisis shows that swift action and widespread healthcare can prevent an outbreak.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coro...ainment-2020-3


  • Though the island state is only 81 miles from mainland China, Taiwan has managed to stem what could have been an even bigger coronavirus crisis.
  • The country leveraged its public-health infrastructure and affordable healthcare to keep its population safe and healthy compared with nearby countries.
  • Countries struggling to manage their COVID-19 epidemics can learn something from Taipei's swift, multifaceted response to the virus, experts say.
How did Taiwan manage to stem a health crisis that originated in nearby China and has seen more than 127,000 infections and nearly 5,000 deaths around the globe?

In mid-January, Taiwan sent a team of experts on a fact-finding mission to China — with permission, even though Taiwanese-Chinese relations are less than stellar.

"They didn't let us see what they didn't want us to see, but our experts sensed the situation was not optimistic," Kolas Yotaka, a Taiwanese government representative.
Then the government ramped up safety and health protocols even further.

By late January, Taipei had established a Central Epidemic Command Center, centralizing policy measures to protect public health. On January 26, Taiwan became the first country to ban flights from Wuhan.

Around the same time, the government banned the export of face masks and ensured they were affordable by capping prices at about $0.17 each.

By late February, Taipei had distributed nearly 6.5 million masks to primary and secondary schools, as well as after-school institutions, plus 84,000 liters of hand sanitizer and 25,000 forehead thermometers.

Intensive health monitoring through big data and repeat testing
Taiwan's health infrastructure, including big-data analysis, is partially the result of the 2003 SARS outbreak, which killed 73 people and stunted its economy.

After the 2003 epidemic, Taiwan put temperature monitors in airports to screen travelers for fever, a symptom of COVID-19. The government had learned its lesson.

Travelers can also report their travel and health history with a QR code, which the government uses "to classify travelers' infectious risks based on flight origin and travel history in the last 14 days," the Stanford report said.

"People who had not traveled to high-risk areas were sent a health declaration border pass via SMS for faster immigration clearance," the report said. "Those who had traveled to high-risk areas were quarantined at home and tracked through their mobile phones to ensure that they stayed home during the incubation period."

Crucially, the government does not forget about people who tested negative for the virus — it retests them to keep track of new cases, Wang told NBC News.

'Taiwan's health insurance lets everyone not be afraid to go to the hospital'

Taiwan's health-insurance system covers 99% of the population, Kolas told NBC News, adding that affordable coverage virtually guarantees that people don't need to choose between their personal and financial health.

"Taiwan's health insurance lets everyone not be afraid to go to the hospital. If you suspect you have coronavirus, you won't have to worry that you can't afford the hospital visit to get tested," she told NBC News. "You can get a free test, and if you're forced to be isolated, during the 14 days, we pay for your food, lodging, and medical care.

"So no one would avoid seeing the doctor because they can't pay for health care," she added.
Easy access to information


To stem the crisis, Taipei required television and radio stations to broadcast hourly public-service announcements about the coronavirus, including how it spreads and how people should prevent infection, NBC News reported.

"We think only when information is transparent, and people have sufficient medical knowledge, will their fear be reduced," Kolas told the outlet.
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Two children watch as chefs make dumplings in Taipei on Saturday. Chiang Ying-ying/AP Photo
In turn, citizens have intensified their safety practices. Tu Chen-yang, a school principal, told NBC News that this was especially evident in schools.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/taiwan...ry?id=69552462

 
My wife was forced to close her business Friday, I have to close mine Monday. The money we've been saving through the years will keep us going for a while, but will only last so long. We’ve both worked very hard and sacrificed much in the beginning and now because of this F’n virus everything is shutdown. Needless to say there won’t be any new additions to my watch collection anytime soon. I pray this crap doesn’t last very long! Stay safe everyone.
 
The new rule in a hard-hit region of Italy comes after some people were "walking" stuffed animals on the ends of "leashes" in order to have an excuse to get out of the house.

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FOX32CHICAGO.COM
Italian region sets 650 foot limit on dog walking, $5,000 fine if you go farther

SOAVE, Italy - In its most far-reaching measures to stop the spread of coronavirus, Italy is slowing industrial production nationwide, while the hardest-hit region of Lombardy banned any outdoor exercise not on personal property and set distance limits on dog-walking.

Franco Locatelli, president of Italy's Higher Health Council, said Sunday that with the new stringent measures announced this weekend, Italy had exhausted all the possible ways it could to limit personal and professional contact. That came as Italy announced that the increase in both infections and deaths had showed the first sign of narrowing in the previous 24 hours.

"Let's continue to keep social distance," Locatelli said. `'Let's adopt these measures, let's manage our behavior and ... certainly we will get the results we are hoping for."

For most people, the new coronavirus causes only mild or moderate symptoms, such as fever or coughing. For some, especially older adults and people with existing health problems, it can cause more severe illness, including pneumonia. More than 95,000 people have recovered, mostly in China.

After a week of complaining that too many people were still out and about in Lombardy, authorities in the hardest-hit region with nearly half of Italy's cases and two-thirds of deaths issued the clearest measures yet to close loopholes being leveraged circumvent bans on movement.

As of Sunday, the maximum radius for dog walking was set at 200 meters, and all outdoor sport that cannot be practiced at home was banned -- not because sports posed a threat, but because people were abusing the freedom of movement.

Authorities in Lombardy also raised fines for violators to 5,000 euros ($5,345).

The Lombardy moves came just ahead of new measures announced by Premier Giuseppe Conte to slow industrial production in eurozone's third-largest economy and a major exporter to only sectors deemed crucial. The government on Sunday was still drawing up a list for the slowdown, set to take effect early in the week.

Locatelli urged anyone whose job would be idled by the new measures to not travel to their hometowns, or risk spreading contagion. He also called on the more than 23,700 Italians with the virus and who were isolated at home to steer clear of family members as outlined by the health ministry, to keep the virus in check.

Italy first moved to prevent the virus from arriving in the country by signing an order Jan. 31 shutting down flights to and from China. A day earlier, authorities confirmed that a pair of tourists from Wuhan had tested positive in Rome. Both have since recovered.

But it wasn't until Feb. 21 that the first case of locally transmitted COVID-19 was confirmed, in the town of Codogno, southeast of Milan. The town and 10 others, with a total population of 50,000, were immediately isolated. The government on Feb. 22 created the first red zones in the 11 Lombardy towns and the town of Vo' Eugeneo near Padova, with soldiers setting up cordons around the area and residents permitted to leave their homes only for essential activities like shopping. Industrial production was stopped, with rare exception.

The next day, Feb. 23, the governors of Lombardy and neighboring Veneto, where Padua is located, shut down museums, cinemas and theaters. But stores remained open as did restaurants and, until 6 p.m. bars. The closures emptied city centers but appeared to have less impact inhibiting activity in neighborhoods, suburbs or small towns. Fitness routines moved from closed gyms to outdoor parks. The last two days of Carnival in Venice were canceled, emptying the city of tourists. Schools and universities were closed in much of the north.

By the end of that week, the one-meter distance rule was set for shops and restaurants -- but that was not universally observed. Early the next week, people over 75 years of age were advised to stay at home. Schools were closed until March 15 in all of Italy -- later extended until April 3. Non-urgent court trials were suspended.

With cases still multiplying exponentially, the government on March 8 signed measures extending containment zones to all of Lombardy and 14 provinces in the other northern regions affecting a quarter of the population. Under the measures, people could leave their immediate areas only for work, health care or activities of strict necessity, like shopping.

When Italian media reported that the closures were imminent, thousands of people jammed trains to get back to homes outside of the new red-zones -- a mass movement that virologists have said helped further spread the contagion.

Just a day later, on March 9, the government extended the lockdown to the entire country. But enforcement was still a matter of interpretation. The mayor of Verona closed parks, seeing too much movement, while Florence's mayor seemed to condone an outside jog. Dog walking remained a valid motivation, but videos popped up on social media of Italians with fake dogs, shaggy stuffed animals on the end of stiff leashes.

Two days later, on March 11, all commercial activities except for those providing necessities were closed.

From March 11-15, the Interior Ministry reported 665,480 people had been controlled, with 27,616 people cited.

On Sunday, Rome Police Chief Franco Gabrielli said 80 people had been cited a day earlier -- including for shopping 10 kilometers (six miles) from home, traveling 15 kilometers ( about nine miles) to a doctor's appointment and claiming medical reasons for being out for a walk but lacking a doctor's certification.
 
Neil Diamond changes lyrics to "Sweet Caroline" in coronavirus PSA
Mar 23, 2020

CBS News

Neil Diamond is doing his part to promote steps to prevent the spread of the coronavirus – and he found a creative way to do it. Diamond changed the lyrics to his iconic hit "Sweet Caroline" for a musical PSA about the virus.

 
With the way that people are hording all toilet paper, pretty soon we'll all miss the days of crummy dollar store toilet paper! At this rate, we'll be using leaves next!
 
bundamania commented #146.1
Today, 03:54 PM
VF political article...

Keep gorging yourself on those french fries Eric.
 
bundamania commented #146.1
Today, 04:34 PM
Y'all have great sandwiches, and we have pretty good beef brisket...it all comes out in the wash.
 
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