- Joined
- Jul 13, 2014
- Messages
- 10,171
After a slow and quiet start to the 2018 hurricane season , the tropics have come to life. This should be expected at this time of year , it is the statistical peak.
There are three reasons for this years slow start.
1.) Below average sea surface temperatures during the first half of the season.
2.) A highly stable environment of sinking air and African dust suppressing cloud formation.
3.) Higher than expected wind shear.
Earlier this week , TS Gordon struck the Gulf coast near the AL. MS. border and the weather entertainment channels tried to create this into a major disaster.
Today , however , there is a viable threat to the east coast. Major CAT4 hurricane Florence , a forecast defiant but powerful little storm , has a possibility to strike the mid east coast of the USA. Florence has surprised forecasters by rapidly intensifying to a major CAT4 storm in what appears to be a poor environment of 25 kts. of wind shear....puzzling at best. Models show high pressure building to the north of Florence which should force the storm farther to the west than originally expected a day or so ago. This may bring the storm uncomfortably close to the east coast (and Bermuda) before the high relaxes and allows the storm to turn to the north and out to sea. There are also 2 more areas of interest which we may also
be watching in a week or so from now.
Bottom line on Florence:
A recurving storm is still a very high probability , but the highly reliable ECMWF has been trending westward.
It is possible that higher wind shear will weaken Florence as it nears the USA , but the highly reliable ECMWF does show a rather significant low pressure area later in it's forecast period.
The storm is still about a week away or longer.....there is plenty of time before we buy up all the peanut butter. Keep at least one eye on this one....listen and read from the NHC , they are the ONLY hurricane authority.
I'll post if it becomes necessary , if conditions change , or if weather entertainment is scaring the crap out of you.
Models for Florence:
Probability cone:
There are three reasons for this years slow start.
1.) Below average sea surface temperatures during the first half of the season.
2.) A highly stable environment of sinking air and African dust suppressing cloud formation.
3.) Higher than expected wind shear.
Earlier this week , TS Gordon struck the Gulf coast near the AL. MS. border and the weather entertainment channels tried to create this into a major disaster.
Today , however , there is a viable threat to the east coast. Major CAT4 hurricane Florence , a forecast defiant but powerful little storm , has a possibility to strike the mid east coast of the USA. Florence has surprised forecasters by rapidly intensifying to a major CAT4 storm in what appears to be a poor environment of 25 kts. of wind shear....puzzling at best. Models show high pressure building to the north of Florence which should force the storm farther to the west than originally expected a day or so ago. This may bring the storm uncomfortably close to the east coast (and Bermuda) before the high relaxes and allows the storm to turn to the north and out to sea. There are also 2 more areas of interest which we may also
be watching in a week or so from now.
Bottom line on Florence:
A recurving storm is still a very high probability , but the highly reliable ECMWF has been trending westward.
It is possible that higher wind shear will weaken Florence as it nears the USA , but the highly reliable ECMWF does show a rather significant low pressure area later in it's forecast period.
The storm is still about a week away or longer.....there is plenty of time before we buy up all the peanut butter. Keep at least one eye on this one....listen and read from the NHC , they are the ONLY hurricane authority.
I'll post if it becomes necessary , if conditions change , or if weather entertainment is scaring the crap out of you.
Models for Florence:
Probability cone: