Tropical Tidbits

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rog1

Tyme Master Jr.
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With Irma now history , I thought I would post a thread for the rest of the 2017 hurricane season and give updates , if necessary , about potential threats to coastal WITS in hurricane prone areas for information and planning purposes.



1) Hurricane Jose located about 28Nlat/72Wlong is moving NW @9 and is forecast to move to the N and then the NE in the next 5 days. Although a direct strike in the New England area is unlikely , Jose will be rather large and the east coast from eastern LI to Me. should feel some affects and TS warnings may have to be issued in a day or so.

Opinion: I don't think this one will be a threat other than some poor weather at closest approach.

SFWMD model graphic of Jose with NHC centerline track in red:


storm_12





2)Tropical storm Lee located about 12.5Nlat/33Wlong is moving to the W @12. It is forecast to move in this general direction or WNW for the next 5 days and it is expected to encounter high wind shear and possibly weaken to TD.

Opinion: At this time the models seem to think Lee will have problems gaining strength in the high wind shear coming in a few days and it may go away.


SFWMD model graphic of Lee with NHC centerline forecast in red: Don't read too much into the more north projections by the models.



storm_14.gif





3)Potential tropical storm Maria , cyclone 96L , located about 12Nlat/51Wlong moving W @ 22 is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days and possibly threaten the Islands. The strength models show steady strengthening of this one.

Opinion: This is the storm that has my attention as it will move to the W or WNW. It could become a significant hurricane if it can avoid the large landmasses and wind shear. High pressure is expected to build back in and may force this thing more west than where the models are showing a more northward recurve motion 5 days or so from now. I would keep one eye open on this one and check in mid week.


SFWMD model graphic of potential Maria with NHC centerline forecast in red after naming




storm_15.gif





Have a nice weekend.



Disclaimer: Please note , my forecasts and my opinions of forecasts are mine alone. If a storm actually threatens your area , please consult official warnings and instructions on what you are expected to do and prepare for.
 
hey u don't need a weather man to...HEY YOU DO NEED A WEATHER MAN WITH SKILLS...


ScottyB watching winds & barometer...

MARY POPPINS wasn't stupid... " winds from the east " dirty putas hurt many folk-


thank you very much for opening this thread and your expertise... i will try to read-learn-think-extrapolate-
 
Thanks, rog.
Agree with Scotty. Who needs a weather man while we have our own right here. :)
 
Thanks for the updates, Rog!:hand:
 
I thought I would update today as a very complex situation is beginning to take shape near the east coast with many "players" involved.

TS Lee is having trouble with wind shear and should have trouble staying alive....it may go away in a week.


Hurricane Jose is now forecast to POSSIBLY hang around the NE coast instead of moving directly out to sea. Models show it COULD actually mini loop again off of the NE coast and turn back to the west before the wind shear dissipates and destroys it off of but near the coast , and then the remains will go out to sea.

Hurricane Maria is forecast to become a major hurricane of cat 3 strength or possibly higher. It is currently forecast to affect the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico and possibly Hispaniola as a major hurricane.

Now , as Bo Burton would say to Chris Schenkel during the heyday of the Professional Bowlers Tour , "The situation is this".

The future forecast beyond 5 days becomes sketchy. Maria will travel around the A/B high and the models show it recurving just to the east of or over the Bahamas..... but all of this actually depends on what Jose does , how strong he remains and how long he hangs around.

High pressure is forecast to build back in along the east coast and link to the A/B high and block the early recurve of Maria and force it more to the west than the models show. The high will also block the exit out to sea of Jose. How strong this high will be and how long it lasts is anyone's guess this far out in time.

If Jose remains a little stronger and hangs around a little longer , he (it) will actually open up a hole in the blocking high and allow a major hurricane , Maria , to begin turning towards the NW and possible N. If Jose dissipates earlier than the models are currently showing , Maria will not have a path open to the north and she (it) may threaten anywhere on the east coast as a hurricane or a major hurricane. Some future models do show wind shear along or near the east coast becoming stronger in the 5 day time period and that could also weaken or deflect Maria a little.

The NHC's current thinking right now seems to be right down the middle. Their forecast is a blend of the GFS and the ECMWF models ( and other non public stuff that they probably use) and currently shows a longer lasting Jose will open a hole for Maria to begin to turn towards the NW or N very near or over the Bahamas in 5 to 7 days. Hard to forecast small upper level lows or highs could also bump Maria a little in either direction , land interaction with the big islands could also disrupt it.

This is a very complex and fluid situation , more than a week away , which needs to be watched closely if you live anywhere on the east coast from Miami to Canada. We want Maria to turn and remain in the ocean. If it is in the ocean , it has a greater chance to recurve and not affect anyone.
 
The "young " think the situation is this.....


91n85nFIUGL._AC_UL320_SR234,320_.jpg
 
Todays tropical update:


TS Lee is fighting very strong wind shear and will probably go away tomorrow or Wednesday the latest.

Asymmetric Hurricane Jose is hanging around at hurricane strength in a hostile wind shear environment probably because it is over the warm waters of the gulfstream. It is forecast to move slowly to the north and then respond to an approaching trough and drift south or even SE through 5 days. The biggest threat to LI and NE should be rough seas and high tides with rip currents (under toe). TS warnings have been issued for NE and TS watches have been issued for LI. A deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring greater impacts to these areas before Jose goes away.

Major hurricane Maria has rapidly intensified into a cat4 hurricane, the 3rd major hurricane this year. Maria is currently a small but very powerful hurricane with a pinhole eye of about 10 miles across. Because of this small eye , Maria can continue to spin up very quickly , similar to a spinning skater who spins very fast when her arms are tucked in. (angular momentum) Maria will probably become the second cat5 hurricane this year. Maria is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands early tomorrow am and then threaten or cross Puerto Rico as a cat4 or cat5 hurricane. The NHC future forecast philosophy has not changed and has actually been reinforced from 48 hours ago due to strong 5 day model clusters. Maria will move to the WNW for 3 days until it feels a weakness in the A/B high ridge caused by a stronger and longer lasting Jose. The strength of the high pressure also seems to have been overestimated by the models of a few days ago. When Maria reaches the weakness , a turn to the NW and then the NNW is expected keeping Maria off the US coast in the 5 day to one week timeframe. Longer projections for the future path of Maria are not accurate at this time but an all ocean solution for this storm is a high possibility. Maria may actually catch up to or be near Jose if he lolly-gags around on his deathbed offshore. It is possible that these two storms may dance the rare Fujiwara effect tango before fickle Maria dumps her exhausted partner.

Fujiwara effect: when 2 tropical storms move within a few hundred miles of each other , if the outflow of one doesn't destroy the other , they will rotate on a common center point between them. (think of the double ferris wheel that you have seen in the carnivals) It happened earlier this year between 2 east pacific storms until the stronger destroyed the other. The best example I remember ever seeing was between 2 Indian Ocean storms about 10 to 15 years ago. They danced the tango for almost a complete revolution before each left its partner for a new direction.


Maria's pinhole eye about to cross Dominica

View attachment 10562



Long range GFS model does not show any other TS development for the next 384 hours , but we are still at the peak time for hurricanes for the next 30 days or so. We can go from sugar to #@#$ in 24 hours or less.
 
I Resemble that.
91n85nFIUGL._AC_UL320_SR234,320_.jpg
TS 'Lee':grin
 
Todays tropical update:


As expected , TS Lee has dissipated.( Fortunately Mod Lee is alive and well.) The remnants of TS Lee have a low probability to redevelope back into a TS in the next 5 days. Regardless if that happens , that TS or whatever would move north and find its way into the hurricane graveyard in the North Atlantic.


Hurricane Jose is still meandering off of the coast of Va. and actually looks a little bit better than yesterday. He is expected to wander about in the ocean and cause high seas to LI and New England before Maria pays him a visit at his funeral.

Hurricane Maria rapidly strengthened into a mid scale cat 5 hurricane yesterday and crossed the island of Dominica with an unfortunate wobble that kept the small pinhole eye in direct contact with the island for several hours longer than a direct crossing would have taken. I'm afraid to see images from this paradise as it was probably pummeled back into the stone age. The future forecast philosophy for Maria has not changed since yesterday. Hurricane Jose , being large and strong and a perfect gentleman , has opened a door in the high pressure that will allow major hurricane Maria to turn from a WNW track towards the north and remain out at sea for at least the next 7 days. An all ocean solution for this storm as it passes off the coast of the USA is possible. The eastern Bahamas are possibly in its path. As Maria moves to the WNW , she will cross very near or over St. Croix and Puerto Rico tomorrow as a strong cat 5 hurricane and pass by the north shore of Hispaniola before beginning its forecast northern turn. Maria may not have reached its maximum potential intensity yet. After the Island crossings , Maria will begin to slowly move into an environment not conductive for it to maintain cat 5 strength and it will very slowly weaken for the remainder of its existence. Eventually , Maria will catch up to Jose , or what is left of Jose , and like a Black Widow spider , she will repay her gentleman doorman Jose by absorbing or destroying him.

Maria most likely will remain off of the US coast and pass by on its way to the North Pole. .....BUT......the stubborn ECMWF model still shows a longer lasting Jose and an approaching Maria will Fujiwara tug and this will pull Maria into an impact around NJ or LI as a 100 to 110 mph storm. I find this solution somewhat unrealistic.... but it is the very reliable ECMWF making this prediction , so we will have to watch this situation carefully. Hopefully , Fridays models will have a better grip on this. Stay tuned.


Link to Puerto Rico radar...click the word loop next to the word composite for animation.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=jua
 
Very interesting stuff. Thanks Rog for sharing this info and your weather expertise!
 
Todays tropical update:

I'll try to be brief , bright and polite with the bottom line info as I see it.

Jose has weakened and will continue to do so for the next few days until it goes away or Maria absorbs it. Jose is now too weak to cause any real damage if it wanders closer to the coast and it is NOT forecast to do that.

Maria crossed Puerto Rico during an eyewall replacement cycle which increased the size of the eye from 10 miles to 30 miles and reduced the storm to cat4. The good news is a larger eye will take longer to spin up and strengthen.....the bad news is the wind field size will likely increase. Interaction with the land further weakened Maria and it is now a mid range cat3 , still dangerous. Maria will be in good conditions for the next 2 days so some strengthening is forecast. After that time Maria will turn towards the North from its WNW track but conditions for a major hurricane will start to become unfavorable as wind shear will be increasing. Hopefully , Maria will not gain that much size or strength so the wind shear will weaken it sooner. When Maria is off of the coast of SC heading North 5 days from now , the NHC has its strength forecast as a cat2 storm. This is more towards the higher end of what the strength guidance models are showing. Technology is very good at predicting a hurricanes direction and not quite as good at predicting a hurricanes strength. Cat 2 strength in 5 or 6 days from now might be generous. Maria seems to be moving a little slower than the forecast positions of a few days ago. I have noticed over the years that storms usually do lag behind their forecast positions , they seldom outrun the forecast. This is good , because the high pressure that MIGHT block Maria's escape out to sea will be weaker with time. An all ocean solution for this storm is still a high possibility and most models now show a close pass by the coasts of the northeast.

I read NY has staged the National Guard and other logistics on LI in case they are needed. Let us hope that this storm is just a good practice run..... Further updates as new info unfolds in the days ahead.....we have plenty of time for this to be a nothing event and that is what we hope and pray for. In any event , listen to your local authorities for any decisions that you MAY have to make.
 
Thanks for the updates, Rog.:hand:
 
Unless something changes , this will probably be the last update required on hurricane Maria.

The hurricane models have finally begun to see things my way :wink: and now show a non threatening Maria remaining offshore of the USA on her way to the north Atlantic.

With the MJO pulse moving away from our hemisphere , the long range GFS model shows no new TS threat areas for the next week or so.
(MJO....a pulse of extra cloudiness that travels around the planet in 30 day or so intervals. It has been know to cause an increase in TS activity as it did this month.)

Maria , like any normal woman , is behind schedule on her track and will be late for her meeting and Fujiwara dance with Jose.
Jose . like an impatient gentleman , is tired of waiting and will be leaving the dance hall and going away in a day or so only causing high surf in his temper tantrum.
The Fujiwara dance is interesting to watch when it occurs in the middle of the ocean , it is not so interesting when it occurs on your doorstep and one or both partners threaten to step on your feet or remove your roof.

The three major hurricanes this month caused death and much property damage. All three will be retired names.(5 retirees is the record) We still have about 30 days or so of peak activity remaining this year , and we already have released enough cyclone energy (ACE) for this year to be classified as hyperactive. Let us hope it remains quiet for the remainder of this season. If any viable threat occurs , I will keep you informed.
 
RODGER DODGER u might need a weather man to mansplain what happened to USPS delay--


thx ROG1 gr8 stuff shakespearean drama...dirty MARIA BLACK WIDOW seduces little JOSE and sucks the life out of him and then devours him in some kind of S & M FUJIWARA DANCE ...bonsai !!


- thx for reporting ROG...gr8 stuff and getting better every day--


-weather shaman gets boost in status WIT WEATHERMAN
 
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