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- Jul 13, 2014
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With Irma now history , I thought I would post a thread for the rest of the 2017 hurricane season and give updates , if necessary , about potential threats to coastal WITS in hurricane prone areas for information and planning purposes.
1) Hurricane Jose located about 28Nlat/72Wlong is moving NW @9 and is forecast to move to the N and then the NE in the next 5 days. Although a direct strike in the New England area is unlikely , Jose will be rather large and the east coast from eastern LI to Me. should feel some affects and TS warnings may have to be issued in a day or so.
Opinion: I don't think this one will be a threat other than some poor weather at closest approach.
SFWMD model graphic of Jose with NHC centerline track in red:
2)Tropical storm Lee located about 12.5Nlat/33Wlong is moving to the W @12. It is forecast to move in this general direction or WNW for the next 5 days and it is expected to encounter high wind shear and possibly weaken to TD.
Opinion: At this time the models seem to think Lee will have problems gaining strength in the high wind shear coming in a few days and it may go away.
SFWMD model graphic of Lee with NHC centerline forecast in red: Don't read too much into the more north projections by the models.
3)Potential tropical storm Maria , cyclone 96L , located about 12Nlat/51Wlong moving W @ 22 is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days and possibly threaten the Islands. The strength models show steady strengthening of this one.
Opinion: This is the storm that has my attention as it will move to the W or WNW. It could become a significant hurricane if it can avoid the large landmasses and wind shear. High pressure is expected to build back in and may force this thing more west than where the models are showing a more northward recurve motion 5 days or so from now. I would keep one eye open on this one and check in mid week.
SFWMD model graphic of potential Maria with NHC centerline forecast in red after naming
Have a nice weekend.
Disclaimer: Please note , my forecasts and my opinions of forecasts are mine alone. If a storm actually threatens your area , please consult official warnings and instructions on what you are expected to do and prepare for.
1) Hurricane Jose located about 28Nlat/72Wlong is moving NW @9 and is forecast to move to the N and then the NE in the next 5 days. Although a direct strike in the New England area is unlikely , Jose will be rather large and the east coast from eastern LI to Me. should feel some affects and TS warnings may have to be issued in a day or so.
Opinion: I don't think this one will be a threat other than some poor weather at closest approach.
SFWMD model graphic of Jose with NHC centerline track in red:
2)Tropical storm Lee located about 12.5Nlat/33Wlong is moving to the W @12. It is forecast to move in this general direction or WNW for the next 5 days and it is expected to encounter high wind shear and possibly weaken to TD.
Opinion: At this time the models seem to think Lee will have problems gaining strength in the high wind shear coming in a few days and it may go away.
SFWMD model graphic of Lee with NHC centerline forecast in red: Don't read too much into the more north projections by the models.
3)Potential tropical storm Maria , cyclone 96L , located about 12Nlat/51Wlong moving W @ 22 is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days and possibly threaten the Islands. The strength models show steady strengthening of this one.
Opinion: This is the storm that has my attention as it will move to the W or WNW. It could become a significant hurricane if it can avoid the large landmasses and wind shear. High pressure is expected to build back in and may force this thing more west than where the models are showing a more northward recurve motion 5 days or so from now. I would keep one eye open on this one and check in mid week.
SFWMD model graphic of potential Maria with NHC centerline forecast in red after naming
Have a nice weekend.
Disclaimer: Please note , my forecasts and my opinions of forecasts are mine alone. If a storm actually threatens your area , please consult official warnings and instructions on what you are expected to do and prepare for.