🌎 2021 Tropical Trouble , Look Here

Lightning show in the clouds, thanks Lee. Do me a favor and see if you can find a high res video like that one during the landfall
So far all I can find is a longer video Rog. Oops looks like a loop of the other one. Still looking!
 
Thanks Lee , but it doesn't quite make it to the timeframe I wanted to review.

Not a video but...:pdown: Maybe this?

https://newsabode.com/laura-landfall/

laura-two-300x241.jpg

CAPTION
NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over Hurricane Laura soon after it made landfall in southwestern Louisiana around 2 a.m. EDT on Aug. 27 and captured this nighttime image. Laura’s cloud cover extends from Houston, Texas east to just west of New Orleans, Louisiana.
CREDIT
Image Courtesy: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS).
 
Not a video but...:pdown: Maybe this?

https://newsabode.com/laura-landfall/

laura-two-300x241.jpg

CAPTION
NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over Hurricane Laura soon after it made landfall in southwestern Louisiana around 2 a.m. EDT on Aug. 27 and captured this nighttime image. Laura’s cloud cover extends from Houston, Texas east to just west of New Orleans, Louisiana.
CREDIT
Image Courtesy: NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS).



Thanks Lee....my little conspiratorial brain really needed the IR movie of the last 2 hours up to land fall. I didn't save the loop. It's no biggie though.
 
NHC is following 2 tropical waves and they will move generally W or WNW for the next 5 days. Both currently have a low chance to develop in the next 5 days but conditions can and probably will improve with time. It is way to early to determine where these waves will go or if they will be a threat to anyone including the US. Todays models show the southern central Atlantic wave moving generally to the west being pushed by the Atlantic high trade winds. The eastern wave may move more WNW for at least the next 5 days. Usually waves in this position recurve but the Atlantic high looks like it will hold firm. It is way way way to early to speculate , but the models today show this one recurving uncomfortably close to the Bahamas. Most projections this far out are almost always wrong.
 
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Thanks for posting this information up, Lee.
 
Thanks Lee.

Paulette and Rene (no Q storm) have been in the computer models and the NHC's radar for the last several days. The models have been consistent with both of these storms recurving early in the middle of the ocean and the NHC forecast tracks confirm this. Paulette is forecast to strengthen into a strong TS in the 5 day forecast period as conditions ahead of it are not that great. Rene is forecast to become a Cat 1 hurricane in the 5 day forecast period and level off at that strength as conditions in the 5 days of the forecast are not that great.

The potential future "S" storm as depicted by reliable computer models (US and European) is forecast to exit the coast of Africa in a few days. These same models develop the S storm into a potential hurricane and also recurve this storm in the middle of the ocean.

The potential "T" storm as depicted by computer models is forecast to exit the coast of Africa in about a week more or less. The models say this one will travel more to the west and threaten the islands as high pressure builds back in as a front exits the USA. It is way way WAY to early to speculate on this potential storms possible track and strength and if it will affect the USA as it may be more than a week away from forming if at all.

Paulette is the earliest "P" storm in our records , as far as we know , by 10 days beating the old record in 2005. Rene is also obviously the earliest "R" storm but I don't have the stats on that record yet. We are well on pace to have Greek alphabet naming this year.

Sept. 10th is the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

We are moving closer to the fall season so hopefully the weather fronts coming off the coast of NA will dig deep and keep Atlantic storms recurving out at sea but beware of the October surprise in a busy season like this one.
 
TS Sally has formed in the GOM just west of S. Florida. Sally crossed S Fla as a TD last night and today about 50 miles south of me. Sally brought some winds probably in the 35mph range , some heavy rain on and off and a barometer reading of about 1008mb at my location. Sally is forecast to move slowly towards the LA/MS border and strengthen into a Cat 1 hurricane before landfall on Tues. If you live in the possible strike area you should keep an eye on this one as it is a slow mover and could get a little stronger before running into increasing wind shear from an approaching front as it nears the coast which should weaken it. As of now the main threat from Sally will be rain and storm surge mostly on the right side of the storm.

The future T storm , Teddy , has exited the coast of Africa few days ago. In spite of weather entertainment trying to make Teddy the next "big thing" and move it west west west..... , Teddy is forecast by the NHC to recurve in the middle of the Atlantic following the hole in the Atlantic high caused by the wake of Rene and Paulette. At least we hope so. Weather entertainment can now concentrate on turning Sally into Katrina.

The future V storm , soon to be named Vicky , has exited Africa a day or so ago. Models show Vicky also following in the general wakes of the other recurving storms which have displaced the Atlantic high to the east.

Models are also hinting at another future storm forming near where Teddy is expected to form. It is way to far in the future to speculate on that potential storm so we will have to wait a week or two to see what happens.

We have about 40 more days until Oct 20th of high strike potential. After that , it rolls off rather quickly.

The rest of the planet remains as quiet as a sports stadium with zero fans.
 
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Sally is slowly crawling N soon to be NE towards MS or AL. Sally intensified rapidly yesterday to a Cat2 hurricane but wind shear , cooler water upwelling and dry air off of the continent have weakened it back to a Cat1. Sally is forecast to hold its own and strike the coast as a Cat1 hurricane but it could weaken further. Sally was trying to close off an eye yesterday but today that eye appears open on the south side hopefully allowing more dry air in the core and causing a weakening trend. Sally is forecast to bring 12 to 18 inches of rain to the MS/AL area. Storm surge of 10 feet or more is possible mostly on the right side of the center. Tornados are also possible mostly on the right side of the center. Being a slow mover , this storm will be a royal P.I.A. for the next few days. If you live in the affected area , please stay safe.

Bermuda was struck by Cat 2 hurricane Paulette yesterday.

The Atlantic is quite hyperactive with the NHC following multiple storms and areas of concern right now. It's a real traffic jam out there. Other than Sally , there are no areas that concern me at the moment for potential USA strikes in at least the next 10 days to 2 weeks , but we are at the peak of hurricane season. You can go from sugar to s#@t in a day.

The next named storm will be the 21st of the season and it will be named Wilfred which is the end of our list of hurricane names. There are no names for the letters q, u, x, y, z. After Wilfred , storm names will use the Greek alphabet ( alpha , beta , gamma , delta etc ) for the second time in the satellite era just like in 2005. (28 total).

The rest of the planet is super quiet with only a weak TS in the east Pacific and an invest near the Philippines.
 
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looks like it's gonna be tyme to do it greek soon... sadly

storm surge possible 10 foot... " how high's the water mama ? " JOHNNY CASH
 
Might be a good time to head for higher ground! :wink: Thanks for the update, Rog.:hat:
 
Sally inched onto the coast near Gulf Shores AL. as a Cat2 hurricane with winds of 105mph. The NHC did remark that the higher winds may not have made it down to the surface. The highest sustained winds that I could find were in the 80's and the highest gusts were in the 90's. Sally is lumbering along to the NNE and has been downgraded to a TS. Tremendous amounts of rain fell and are falling along Sally's path. 10 to 30 inches are possible from this slow mover. DirecTV usually provides some of the local TV stations to appear on a special channel after a storm event for information purposes. I usually watch this to see how bad the damage was.

Invest 90L is in the bay of Campeche and is being monitored by the NHC. The computer models are not in agreement and are showing this one can go just about anywhere in the Gulf. This one is worthy of at least one eye if you live along the Gulf coast in case this one develops.

99L is in the NE Atlantic. It has a low chance to develop and what ever it becomes will probably move towards Portugal.

98L is in the far eastern Atlantic and it has a medium to high chance to develop. Most models don't really strengthen this one much beyond a TS and most models move 98L to the west and begin to recurve it before the Islands. I would also keep at least one eye on this one in case it stays weak and moves further west than the models say , or it just finds a sweet spot on its journey that is good enough for it to become a problem for somewhere populated.

Put a fork in Paulette , it's done.

TS Vicky is in the eastern Atlantic and it is on life support. Get ready for the fork , it's almost done.

Hurricane Teddy is in hurricane alley in the central Atlantic. It is forecast to move to the NW and possibly threaten Bermuda as a major hurricane in 5 to 6 days. Bermuda has just been hit by hurricane Paulette a few days ago. After a possible Bermuda encounter , Teddy will continue most likely to the NNW before turning NE in the westerlies and moving out to the N Atlantic TS graveyard. Teddy is also worth keeping at least one eye on at this time as a reliable model shows this one possibly coming uncomfortably close to New England and the Canadian maritimes before it heads away.


Teddy probability cone:


143944_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png




The rest of the planet is quiet with only 2 weak TS's and 1 invest.
 
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A weak wave is about to come off Africa in a day or 2. It is expected to move to the NW more or less over Cabo Verde. Conditions are very dry and not particularly favorable. The NHC is currently giving this one a low chance to develop.

The remnants of Paulette are N of the Azores. The NHC is giving this one a low chance to redevelop near the Azores and move very little.

TS Wilfred has formed in the eastern Atlantic. The NHC moves this one to the WNW before weakening back to a TD in less than optimum conditions.

Sub tropical storm Alpha has formed of the coast of Portugal. It is expected to move towards the coast of Portugal or France over the next few days.

Cat 4 hurricane Teddy is moving NW out of hurricane alley. It is forecast to turn more to the N and just miss Bermuda. Being a powerful hurricane , Bermuda will still feel winds and surf. Teddy will then continue to the N and is forecast to strike the Canadian Maritimes.

TD 22 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. When it is named it will be called Beta. It is forecast by the NHC to move WNW towards Texas and then turn and parallel the coast before moving inland near the TX/LA border. The NHC is forecasting future Beta to strengthen to a minimum Cat 1 hurricane but they noted that this is at the upper end of the strength models at this time. Conditions are not particularly that good for Beta with dry continental air and moderate wind shear to deal with. A HH aircraft was sent to investigate future Beta but it had to turn back as it was struck by lightning.

Probability cone for Beta....






Elsewhere , very quiet , with a weak TS Noul to strike Vietnam and a weak wave invest SW of Hawaii and moving away.

The long range GFS is starting to show a TS or hurricane near Fla. in the first week of Oct , but that is to far away to speculate on.
 
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