🌎 2021 Tropical Trouble , Look Here

rog1

Tyme Master Jr.
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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a brisk start if you just count names and numbers. If you track the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) , which is the true measure of the season , 2020 in the Atlantic is not that remarkable. As a matter of fact , the entire northern hemisphere has been below average so far this year.

Today , however , we have 2 areas of interest that have the potential to affect the USA. The first area is Invest 91L , possibly with the future name of Hanna , spinning up in the central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has forecast 91L to possibly reach TS strength and move onshore in central to southern Texas in about 5 days more or less from now. 91L will probably just be a rain maker. Keep an eye on this if you live in areas that usually flood.

The second area of interest is TS Gonzalo which is currently located in the south central Atlantic. Gonzalo is a rather small TS currently moving W at about 12mph with winds around 50mph. Gonzalo is imbedded , or just south of , a large pulse of dry , sinking , African dust air and is moving quickly in tandem with it. Gonzalo is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so but on approach to the Windward Islands , it is forecast to weaken to a TS. Being a small storm , Gonzalo can strengthen or weaken very rapidly as affected by its surrounding environment.

The long term prospects for Gonzalo are varied. Some models weaken it to a wave in the western Caribbean Sea , while other models still show a hurricane. The model outputs you usually see highlighted on TV are the GFS and the ECMWF. Both of these reliable models currently weaken Gonzalo to a TS but the ECMWF seems to be starting to regenerate the storm in the western Caribbean Sea in the long term. The NHC is currently forecasting a more southern track for the storm and this is reasonable given the model outputs and the current environmental conditions. Gonzalo looks like it will pass to the south of Herbert box #1 (15 to 20deg N LAT , 60 to 65deg W LONG) which decreases the chance that this storm will recurve in the Atlantic or be an east coast event , but that is still not impossible.....just unlikely. If you live on the Gulf coast , I would at least keep one eye open on this storm, Hopefully , it just goes away.

Here are the models for Gonzalo from SFWMD....the page usually self updates throughout the life of the storm. The official NHC centerline track is in red labeled NHC in the table.


Event over , graphic removed:



......Elsewhere , some models show another TC in the Atlantic near the end of the month.

Hawaii will be affected by hurricane Douglas in about 4 to 5 days from now.

I'll update if necessary. Please stay safe if necessary , from the weather and from the virus.
 
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Gonzalo did just go away....

Hanna has come onshore in TX. as a strong Cat 1 .....large amounts of rain is the greatest threat in the low areas.... and the highlands due to mudslides. Storm surge will be greatest on the north side of the storm due to the CCW motion. Most of the strongest winds were on the eastern portion of Hanna and they will be weaker when they come onshore as friction has started to erode the vortex.


Douglas will strike northern HI. tomorrow as a Cat1 hurricane.

From NHC........"Based on the latest forecast, a Hurricane Warning has been issued
for Oahu. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for Hawaii
County and Maui County. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for
Hawaii County and Maui County, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect for Kauai County."


A strong tropical wave invest , 92L , is forecast to develop in the MDR. Early models show possible effects to the Windward Islands and possible effects to the Bahamas and USA later.


The Cape Verde season seems to be off and running....

Here is the model graphic from SFWMD:....removed
 
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Without a well defined center , trying to track and forecast this storm is dirtier than a gas station bathroom. The models are flipping back and forth like a windshield wiper.
 
Over night Isaias formed on the north side of 92L. Isaias has been a battle for dominance between two main competing swirls. Which one was going to be the center of attention. It was going back and forth like a good heavyweight fight for several days and my money was on the southern swirly , when suddenly , the northern swirl struck a death blow on its southern dancing partner and sent it to an early grave.

Isaias is now preparing to cross Hisp. with 60mph winds. The mountains of Hisp will weaken it somewhat and may again , per the NHC , cause the center to reform farther to the north. The future track and strength of Isaias depends on exactly where this happens before the models and the NHC can predict a better future forecast.

The forecast right now before the crossing of Hisp. , and if the forecast is perfect , shows a strong TS just offshore of the Fla SE coast on Sat. eve. The storm will then parallel the east coast and head out to sea. We will know more after the crossing.
 
This year has been fast and furious so far. We are the fastest to 7 names so far but a handful of years have a higher ACE. Interesting , considering the rest of the northern hemisphere basins are so far , as quiet as a morgue.
 
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A lot of factors in this storm. A slower troff , stronger ridge , and the models seeing a weaker system all mean that Isaias will trend west and pass very close to or just over my location near Ft. Lauderdale Fl. as a Cat 1 hurricane. If you live farther up the east coast , I don't think this storm will be an issue for you other than a lousy rainy breezy day.
 
With several northern jogs last night , I am now highly confident that the main core of Isaias will miss me by a comfortable margin later this evening. The storm remained a little stronger than most of the models predicted , which caused a more eastern path. I will still get some stormy weather , but not that bad as the storm is stronger on its east side. With wind shear expected to increase with time to weaken the storm and an increasing forward speed to shorten the storms duration after it passes me , I don't think this storm will pose a major issue farther up the east coast with the exception being NC outer banks.

This storm gave me a higher degree of uncertainty and held my concern right up to last eve , not because it was a super cane , but because the models were bouncing around like a windshield wiper and did not have strong agreement for days. The European and the US global models were both showing a weaker more westward storm while the HWRF hurricane model showed a stronger more Eastward storm. I guess it was the winner , at least in the last round. The model that really beats them all are the forecasters at the NHC.
 
:up: A near miss is better than a direct hit, for sure!:wink: May your luck hold, Rog!:dance2:
 
Looks like you're going to be okay Rog. I assume you have hurricane panels/shutters?
 
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a brisk start if you just count names and numbers. If you track the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) , which is the true measure of the season , 2020 in the Atlantic is not that remarkable. As a matter of fact , the entire northern hemisphere has been below average so far this year.

Today , however , we have 2 areas of interest that have the potential to affect the USA. The first area is Invest 91L , possibly with the future name of Hanna , spinning up in the central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has forecast 91L to possibly reach TS strength and move onshore in central to southern Texas in about 5 days more or less from now. 91L will probably just be a rain maker. Keep an eye on this if you live in areas that usually flood.

The second area of interest is TS Gonzalo which is currently located in the south central Atlantic. Gonzalo is a rather small TS currently moving W at about 12mph with winds around 50mph. Gonzalo is imbedded , or just south of , a large pulse of dry , sinking , African dust air and is moving quickly in tandem with it. Gonzalo is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so but on approach to the Windward Islands , it is forecast to weaken to a TS. Being a small storm , Gonzalo can strengthen or weaken very rapidly as affected by its surrounding environment.

The long term prospects for Gonzalo are varied. Some models weaken it to a wave in the western Caribbean Sea , while other models still show a hurricane. The model outputs you usually see highlighted on TV are the GFS and the ECMWF. Both of these reliable models currently weaken Gonzalo to a TS but the ECMWF seems to be starting to regenerate the storm in the western Caribbean Sea in the long term. The NHC is currently forecasting a more southern track for the storm and this is reasonable given the model outputs and the current environmental conditions. Gonzalo looks like it will pass to the south of Herbert box #1 (15 to 20deg N LAT , 60 to 65deg W LONG) which decreases the chance that this storm will recurve in the Atlantic or be an east coast event , but that is still not impossible.....just unlikely. If you live on the Gulf coast , I would at least keep one eye open on this storm, Hopefully , it just goes away.

Here are the models for Gonzalo from SFWMD....the page usually self updates throughout the life of the storm. The official NHC centerline track is in red labeled NHC in the table.


Event over , graphic removed:



......Elsewhere , some models show another TC in the Atlantic near the end of the month.

Hawaii will be affected by hurricane Douglas in about 4 to 5 days from now.

I'll update if necessary. Please stay safe if necessary , from the weather and from the virus.

ACE Admirado4.gif Why mention me AH !! ~ Hair standing up.gif
Wish it was the Boys or Girl scout tents that has to be taken down run.gif
 
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