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- Jul 13, 2014
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The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a brisk start if you just count names and numbers. If you track the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) , which is the true measure of the season , 2020 in the Atlantic is not that remarkable. As a matter of fact , the entire northern hemisphere has been below average so far this year.
Today , however , we have 2 areas of interest that have the potential to affect the USA. The first area is Invest 91L , possibly with the future name of Hanna , spinning up in the central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has forecast 91L to possibly reach TS strength and move onshore in central to southern Texas in about 5 days more or less from now. 91L will probably just be a rain maker. Keep an eye on this if you live in areas that usually flood.
The second area of interest is TS Gonzalo which is currently located in the south central Atlantic. Gonzalo is a rather small TS currently moving W at about 12mph with winds around 50mph. Gonzalo is imbedded , or just south of , a large pulse of dry , sinking , African dust air and is moving quickly in tandem with it. Gonzalo is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so but on approach to the Windward Islands , it is forecast to weaken to a TS. Being a small storm , Gonzalo can strengthen or weaken very rapidly as affected by its surrounding environment.
The long term prospects for Gonzalo are varied. Some models weaken it to a wave in the western Caribbean Sea , while other models still show a hurricane. The model outputs you usually see highlighted on TV are the GFS and the ECMWF. Both of these reliable models currently weaken Gonzalo to a TS but the ECMWF seems to be starting to regenerate the storm in the western Caribbean Sea in the long term. The NHC is currently forecasting a more southern track for the storm and this is reasonable given the model outputs and the current environmental conditions. Gonzalo looks like it will pass to the south of Herbert box #1 (15 to 20deg N LAT , 60 to 65deg W LONG) which decreases the chance that this storm will recurve in the Atlantic or be an east coast event , but that is still not impossible.....just unlikely. If you live on the Gulf coast , I would at least keep one eye open on this storm, Hopefully , it just goes away.
Here are the models for Gonzalo from SFWMD....the page usually self updates throughout the life of the storm. The official NHC centerline track is in red labeled NHC in the table.
Event over , graphic removed:
......Elsewhere , some models show another TC in the Atlantic near the end of the month.
Hawaii will be affected by hurricane Douglas in about 4 to 5 days from now.
I'll update if necessary. Please stay safe if necessary , from the weather and from the virus.
Today , however , we have 2 areas of interest that have the potential to affect the USA. The first area is Invest 91L , possibly with the future name of Hanna , spinning up in the central Gulf of Mexico. The NHC has forecast 91L to possibly reach TS strength and move onshore in central to southern Texas in about 5 days more or less from now. 91L will probably just be a rain maker. Keep an eye on this if you live in areas that usually flood.
The second area of interest is TS Gonzalo which is currently located in the south central Atlantic. Gonzalo is a rather small TS currently moving W at about 12mph with winds around 50mph. Gonzalo is imbedded , or just south of , a large pulse of dry , sinking , African dust air and is moving quickly in tandem with it. Gonzalo is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so but on approach to the Windward Islands , it is forecast to weaken to a TS. Being a small storm , Gonzalo can strengthen or weaken very rapidly as affected by its surrounding environment.
The long term prospects for Gonzalo are varied. Some models weaken it to a wave in the western Caribbean Sea , while other models still show a hurricane. The model outputs you usually see highlighted on TV are the GFS and the ECMWF. Both of these reliable models currently weaken Gonzalo to a TS but the ECMWF seems to be starting to regenerate the storm in the western Caribbean Sea in the long term. The NHC is currently forecasting a more southern track for the storm and this is reasonable given the model outputs and the current environmental conditions. Gonzalo looks like it will pass to the south of Herbert box #1 (15 to 20deg N LAT , 60 to 65deg W LONG) which decreases the chance that this storm will recurve in the Atlantic or be an east coast event , but that is still not impossible.....just unlikely. If you live on the Gulf coast , I would at least keep one eye open on this storm, Hopefully , it just goes away.
Here are the models for Gonzalo from SFWMD....the page usually self updates throughout the life of the storm. The official NHC centerline track is in red labeled NHC in the table.
Event over , graphic removed:
......Elsewhere , some models show another TC in the Atlantic near the end of the month.
Hawaii will be affected by hurricane Douglas in about 4 to 5 days from now.
I'll update if necessary. Please stay safe if necessary , from the weather and from the virus.
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