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- Jul 13, 2014
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An October surprise hurricane , Michael , has formed near Cozumel and the Yucatan Peninsular. This is a prime area for October hurricanes to form around the secondary statistical peak of hurricane season (Oct.18th). Many of the storms that form in this area (the statistical Herbert Box #2 area near the Yucatan) strike Florida. October is the month that most tropical storms hit Florida.
Models started showing some support for a storm to form in this area about a week ago and the NHC was also on board with cyclogenesis even though this area had moderate wind shear present. According to the CIMSS product , there is still moderate wind shear present , but the storm is developing in spite of what looks like poor conditions.
The NHC , and the global models , have consistently shown a future path for this storm to strike the Florida Panhandle somewhere between Okaloosa and Dixie counties with Gulf county , currently as of this writing , as the bulls eye sometime Wednesday afternoon. The NHC has forecast Michael to spin up and become a dangerous CAT 3 major hurricane. It should be noted that this is at the upper end of the model strength guidance at the time I'm writing this....that can change and probably will....the storm can strike weaker....let's hope so....
Question: Why didn't you mention this last week?
Answer: I was kind of busy with my 88 year old aunt...and I really didn't think this would amount to very much..
Question: ....but you did mention the NHC has been watching this for a while.....
Answer: Yes they were and so was I , but I thought the models and conditions were somewhat iffy...now you know why the NHC are the experts , they watch everything.
Question: How can this storm get so strong in conditions that are not really that great?
Answer: Sometimes moderate wind shear actually blows in directions that helps the storm to spin up and to evacuate the exhaust. The GOM SST is a very warm 85deg.
Question: What should I expect if I live in the Fl. panhandle?
Answer: If you live near where the storm center (eye) comes ashore , expect hurricane force winds possible above 110 mph. Rain will be horizontal with the wind. If you live near the coast on the right side of the center , expect a storm surge of possibly 10ft. or higher. The Florida Gulf coast is very susceptible to storm surge so heed your warnings if necessary. Public services (power , water , phone , TV , ETC. ETC.) will be disrupted for many days if not weeks. Trees will fall and roads will be impassible. It will be a mess for several weeks if not longer near the affected areas. Complete your prep by tomorrow. This is not a garbage can blower , I would board up for this one.
Question: I live on the west coast of Florida , should I be concerned?
Answer: Only if you are in the panhandle. While nothing is impossible with weather , I would only be concerned on the Gulf coast if I live near the beach south of the panhandle armpit. Surf may be above normal and we are also in the month for King tides. I don't think this storm will be a "Charlie" moment for you.
Question: Are we going to flood like those affected by Florence?
Answer: If you are not in a storm surge area , probably no. Florence was moving like it was in a walker and dumped a ton of rain while Michael will move like a track star. This storm may be more of a wind event than Florence was. The expected speed of the storm is actually a good thing as the event will be a shorter time frame until conditions begin to improve.
Stay safe and use your head if you are in the expected area of impact or in the probability cone. Follow the directions of your local authorities and read the info from the NHC discussions for hurricane Michael for the most accurate information.
Purple line is center track....remember , really bad conditions can be very very very far from center track.....This image is radar... so you may not see the storm center (eye) if it is out of range....
EVENT IS OVER.....GRAPHICS REMOVED
Models started showing some support for a storm to form in this area about a week ago and the NHC was also on board with cyclogenesis even though this area had moderate wind shear present. According to the CIMSS product , there is still moderate wind shear present , but the storm is developing in spite of what looks like poor conditions.
The NHC , and the global models , have consistently shown a future path for this storm to strike the Florida Panhandle somewhere between Okaloosa and Dixie counties with Gulf county , currently as of this writing , as the bulls eye sometime Wednesday afternoon. The NHC has forecast Michael to spin up and become a dangerous CAT 3 major hurricane. It should be noted that this is at the upper end of the model strength guidance at the time I'm writing this....that can change and probably will....the storm can strike weaker....let's hope so....
Question: Why didn't you mention this last week?
Answer: I was kind of busy with my 88 year old aunt...and I really didn't think this would amount to very much..
Question: ....but you did mention the NHC has been watching this for a while.....
Answer: Yes they were and so was I , but I thought the models and conditions were somewhat iffy...now you know why the NHC are the experts , they watch everything.
Question: How can this storm get so strong in conditions that are not really that great?
Answer: Sometimes moderate wind shear actually blows in directions that helps the storm to spin up and to evacuate the exhaust. The GOM SST is a very warm 85deg.
Question: What should I expect if I live in the Fl. panhandle?
Answer: If you live near where the storm center (eye) comes ashore , expect hurricane force winds possible above 110 mph. Rain will be horizontal with the wind. If you live near the coast on the right side of the center , expect a storm surge of possibly 10ft. or higher. The Florida Gulf coast is very susceptible to storm surge so heed your warnings if necessary. Public services (power , water , phone , TV , ETC. ETC.) will be disrupted for many days if not weeks. Trees will fall and roads will be impassible. It will be a mess for several weeks if not longer near the affected areas. Complete your prep by tomorrow. This is not a garbage can blower , I would board up for this one.
Question: I live on the west coast of Florida , should I be concerned?
Answer: Only if you are in the panhandle. While nothing is impossible with weather , I would only be concerned on the Gulf coast if I live near the beach south of the panhandle armpit. Surf may be above normal and we are also in the month for King tides. I don't think this storm will be a "Charlie" moment for you.
Question: Are we going to flood like those affected by Florence?
Answer: If you are not in a storm surge area , probably no. Florence was moving like it was in a walker and dumped a ton of rain while Michael will move like a track star. This storm may be more of a wind event than Florence was. The expected speed of the storm is actually a good thing as the event will be a shorter time frame until conditions begin to improve.
Stay safe and use your head if you are in the expected area of impact or in the probability cone. Follow the directions of your local authorities and read the info from the NHC discussions for hurricane Michael for the most accurate information.
Purple line is center track....remember , really bad conditions can be very very very far from center track.....This image is radar... so you may not see the storm center (eye) if it is out of range....
EVENT IS OVER.....GRAPHICS REMOVED