Hurricane Michael Update

rog1

Tyme Master Jr.
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An October surprise hurricane , Michael , has formed near Cozumel and the Yucatan Peninsular. This is a prime area for October hurricanes to form around the secondary statistical peak of hurricane season (Oct.18th). Many of the storms that form in this area (the statistical Herbert Box #2 area near the Yucatan) strike Florida. October is the month that most tropical storms hit Florida.

Models started showing some support for a storm to form in this area about a week ago and the NHC was also on board with cyclogenesis even though this area had moderate wind shear present. According to the CIMSS product , there is still moderate wind shear present , but the storm is developing in spite of what looks like poor conditions.

The NHC , and the global models , have consistently shown a future path for this storm to strike the Florida Panhandle somewhere between Okaloosa and Dixie counties with Gulf county , currently as of this writing , as the bulls eye sometime Wednesday afternoon. The NHC has forecast Michael to spin up and become a dangerous CAT 3 major hurricane. It should be noted that this is at the upper end of the model strength guidance at the time I'm writing this....that can change and probably will....the storm can strike weaker....let's hope so....


Question: Why didn't you mention this last week?
Answer: I was kind of busy with my 88 year old aunt...and I really didn't think this would amount to very much..

Question: ....but you did mention the NHC has been watching this for a while.....
Answer: Yes they were and so was I , but I thought the models and conditions were somewhat iffy...now you know why the NHC are the experts , they watch everything.

Question: How can this storm get so strong in conditions that are not really that great?
Answer: Sometimes moderate wind shear actually blows in directions that helps the storm to spin up and to evacuate the exhaust. The GOM SST is a very warm 85deg.

Question: What should I expect if I live in the Fl. panhandle?
Answer: If you live near where the storm center (eye) comes ashore , expect hurricane force winds possible above 110 mph. Rain will be horizontal with the wind. If you live near the coast on the right side of the center , expect a storm surge of possibly 10ft. or higher. The Florida Gulf coast is very susceptible to storm surge so heed your warnings if necessary. Public services (power , water , phone , TV , ETC. ETC.) will be disrupted for many days if not weeks. Trees will fall and roads will be impassible. It will be a mess for several weeks if not longer near the affected areas. Complete your prep by tomorrow. This is not a garbage can blower , I would board up for this one.

Question: I live on the west coast of Florida , should I be concerned?
Answer: Only if you are in the panhandle. While nothing is impossible with weather , I would only be concerned on the Gulf coast if I live near the beach south of the panhandle armpit. Surf may be above normal and we are also in the month for King tides. I don't think this storm will be a "Charlie" moment for you.

Question: Are we going to flood like those affected by Florence?
Answer: If you are not in a storm surge area , probably no. Florence was moving like it was in a walker and dumped a ton of rain while Michael will move like a track star. This storm may be more of a wind event than Florence was. The expected speed of the storm is actually a good thing as the event will be a shorter time frame until conditions begin to improve.


Stay safe and use your head if you are in the expected area of impact or in the probability cone. Follow the directions of your local authorities and read the info from the NHC discussions for hurricane Michael for the most accurate information.

Purple line is center track....remember , really bad conditions can be very very very far from center track.....This image is radar... so you may not see the storm center (eye) if it is out of range....




EVENT IS OVER.....GRAPHICS REMOVED
 
Thanks for the information on this storm, Rog.:cheers:
 
Hurricane michael is approaching landfall. Expected in the next few hours.
This is so unfortunate for property in its path. Currently Cat 4 with winds 145mph.
Well defined eye with multiple spinning vortices.
 
Hurricane Michael is ready to strike the Florida Panhandle in a few hours as of this writing as an extremely dangerous CAT 4 hurricane with winds of 145mph and gusts to CAT 5 power. The storm has continued to strengthen overnight and its central pressure has lowered to the upper end of CAT 4 strength.

This storm is now a life altering event for the people in Bay , Gulf , Calhoun , Liberty , Washington , Jackson , Gadsden , Leon , and Wakula counties and probably others not mentioned including into Georgia. Many buildings and homes will be completely destroyed. It will take months if not a year or longer to restore infrastructure services to the area where the eyewall comes ashore. Life threatening storm surge of 10 ft. and upwards will occur on the right side of the eye. Probably more people will die in the conditions after the storm passes due to stress and physical exertion. Life in this area for many people will take more than a year , if ever , to restore.

Even with our fantastic technology of today , we are still powerless against the power of nature. If you pray , please do so for our brothers and sisters in this area who will be affected by this disaster.
 
Batten Down the Hatches, and stay alert. Here is wishing all in it's path, the best of luck, and good fortune.
 
Pressure down to 923 hPa and wind now at 150mph with about an hour or so to go before landfall. In our records , only 4 hurricanes have hit the USA with a lower pressure.....(1935 Labor Day 892 , 1969 Camille 900 , 1992 Andrew 922 , 2005 Katrina 920)

....JTOL.....3 days ago I didn't think this would make CAT 1 considering what I saw as conditions...


The people in the affected area will be experiencing the effects as if a 30 mile wide EF3 to EF4 tornado hit them......and the contact time with the dangerous wind will be much much much longer than any tornado......
 
As of 1pm ,eyewall beginning to contact beach , winds at 150mph and pressure reported at 919 hPa.... now the 3rd lowest in our history....CAT 5's have occurred with higher pressures than 919...

Post hurricane season 2018 analysis by NHC may upgrade this storm to CAT 5
 
As of 1pm ,eyewall beginning to contact beach , winds at 150mph and pressure reported at 919 hPa.... now the 3rd lowest in our history....CAT 5's have occurred with higher pressures than 919...

Post hurricane season 2018 analysis by NHC may upgrade this storm to CAT 5

CAT-5 Rog? Isn't that kinda rare? This is some serious Shyt.:help:
 
CAT-5 Rog? Isn't that kinda rare? This is some serious Shyt.:help:


Post season analysis would be needed to determine that....but it is not really much different from what this thing is now and from what I see....This is the strongest October hurricane to hit the USA in our records. Landfall has now "officially"occurred as the eyewall is now halfway onshore between Mexico Beach and Panama City. Tomorrows images of destruction will be breathtaking.
 
Our Florida radar graphic above has shown the landfall in real time.

Our microwave image above lags a little behind. What is interesting to note about the microwave image.....notice as the storm moves north of 28 deg to 29 deg the eyewall flexes and shrinks in what appears to be a rather "sneaky" eyewall replacement cycle which makes the storm stronger....(ERP...outer eyewall forms and shrinks and replaces the inner eyewall)... Usually this takes a little longer to complete and storms weaken slightly when this occurs .....but this storm completed the ERP rather leisurely and didn't miss a beat....Andrew was similar in SAT movies and radar when it was close to landfall..... but I have never seen it happen in microwave imagery that smooth....unusual indeed as this entire nightmare has been for me...
 
Landfall confirmed by NHC near Mexico Beach Florida...

Pressure 919hPa.....winds 155mph with gusts to 175mph...

(CAT 5 class begins with 157 mph winds and pressure near 920 hPa)
 
We should start seeing pictures from the eyewall affected areas as soon as it is safe for news helicopters to fly...possibly in a few hours as the storm moves away.....maybe just before darkness.
 
As expected , the initial pictures and video from the area hit by the eyewall of hurricane Michael , particularly Mexico Beach , show catastrophic destruction. From the limited videos that I have seen I would say that the damage seems consistent in what you would expect with a strike from a CAT 4 hurricane. To me it is remarkable and surprising that there are some vertical things , trees , poles and even some 2 story wood built structures that actually survived the equivalent wind onslaught of being hit by a 3+ hour EF3 to EF4 30 mile wide tornado , and this is not even considering what was storm surge destruction. Even many non boarded up windows are intact. I'm NOT trying to downplay the destruction in the area , THIS IS one of the greatest catastrophes in our countries history. I'm merely reporting what I have seen , so far , without the weather entertainment embellishment. A few miles inland of the storm surge area , but still in the eyewall "ground zero" area , damage is consistent with a CAT 4 hurricane but reduces with distance from the shore. Places 30 miles right and left from the eyewall at landfall seemed to experience CAT 1 conditions , not counting storm surge damaged areas.

Peoples lives have been disrupted and their homes have been destroyed. It will take many many months , if not years , or even ever , for people to rebuild. It will take months for public services to be restored. I can't imagine the horror of having my home completely obliterated by a storm. The reported death toll during the storm event , so far , is 2. Unfortunately I would expect that number to increase as search and rescue teams search the debris.

The measured 919 hPa pressure at landfall was the third lowest pressure ever recorded for a USA hurricane strike. It is the lowest pressure ever measured for a USA hurricane strike in October. The reported , but not yet confirmed 155mph sustained wind speed would be the 4 strongest winds for a USA strike if confirmed. This could be the highest wind recorded for an October USA hurricane strike. ( In my opinion from what I have seen , I believe that the sustained wind at ground zero was less than 155mph.....probably in the 140's , maybe upper 130's with gusts to maybe 170.)

For the most part , weather entertainment did a good job of reporting. At least we didn't have a big guy faking being blown around while 2 people calmly walk by. Weather entertainment did say something about mesovortices in the eye of Michael that I failed to see. I did notice an eye that at times had some cloud cover in it , but I didn't see any vortices. The NHC would have commented on features such as mesovortices in their discussions , but I didn't read anything about them.....perhaps I missed something.

Godspeed to all of our brothers and sisters who were affected.
 
My thoughts & prayers to all who got hit with the hurricane, it was truley devastating in so many ways.

My heart goes out to all of them as I know exactly what their going through. Back on 8/24/92 my Mom's B-Day hurricane Andrew Cat-4-5 hit where I lived back in Homestead, FL & the only thing I can say it was the most horrific experience I've ever been through.
 
Thanks for all this intel Roger. You cannot believe how tense it was !!
 
I've been looking at the posted recorded wind speeds for hurricane Michael and I can't find anything higher than the upper 130's. Sooooo what happened to 155mph?

Wind speed is measured many different ways by the NHC and some of it is extrapolated based on our science.

Satellites can extrapolate surface wind speed and other conditions when a storm is out at sea.

When a storm is flown into by hurricane hunter aircraft , instruments on board and dropped into the storm send data back to NHC and wind speed , and other conditions , can be determined.

As a storm comes ashore , 10% to 15% of the wind speed at the surface can be lost by friction rather quickly.

Although the pressure was very low , there is some lag before the winds can catch up and Michael ran out of time and ocean.

Sometimes when a storm comes ashore , the highest measured winds can be bumped a few hundred feet above the ground.

Land based anemometers can fail or lose power and not record the highest wind speed.

Post analysis of this storm by experts using the best our science has to offer will be able to accurately determine the eyewall surface wind speed at landfall for our records. Make no bones about it....Florida was hit by a powerful major CAT 4 hurricane. The exact numbers are only important for science and recorded history , those numbers don't fix your home.

In 1992 South Florida was hit by hurricane Andrew. This storm was recorded as a CAT 4 hurricane with a pressure of 922hPa and sustained winds of 145mph with gusts to 165mph. As data collection had improved in 1992 and technology improved in future years , hurricane Andrew was again analyzed many years later using the data and modern science and it was upgraded to a CAT 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 165mph and gusts to 200mph.

Michaels winds will be bumped accordingly as the data is analyzed.
 
26 500 year storms in last 10 years- ( a 500 year storm means 1 in 500 chance of happening ...i guess the odds need to be re-modeled )

-federally insured flood policies encourage " moral hazard " ( building in flood plains )

-thoughts & prayers for all touched by hurricane-

- need to learn more about climate thank u Rog1 wit weatherman
 
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